How FHA is killing recovery

FHA sucks.

FHATo be more specific, the FHA “second-appraisal-on-flips” requirement sucks.

For many borrowers, FHA is the only game in town.  Unless you have good credit and 10% down (or are looking to buy in a rural area), FHA is the only loan program willing to work with you.

So a foreclosure flipper is going to see a lot of FHA contracts.

The problem is that HUD/FHA still HATES flipping.  They used to have an out-right ban on investor flips within 90 days of acquisition, ostensibly to prevent fraud.  They changed that a few years ago with a waiver program.  Because preventing fraud ain’t that important after all…

But FHA is still a problem if your flip price is 20% or more above your acquisition cost– and you damn well better be flipping for more than 20% above your purchase price or you should hang it up as a real estate investor.

So how can your buyer get an FHA loan if you are flipping within 90 days, for more than 20%?  You either show the value of the work you did justifies the increase in price (which it won’t, since you actually need to make a profit), or you get a second appraisal that “provides appropriate explanation of the increase in property value”.

Well a second appraisal is cheap and easy, so that has to be the correct choice, right?

Wrong.  The second appraisal will kill your deal.  At least 80% of the time.

Over the past six months, we have suddenly started seeing second appraisals on FHA deals that aren’t fit to line a bird cage.

The first appraiser pulls comps within a few blocks, all the same size and age, all within the last few months…. and our contract price is perfect.  That’s exactly how it should be.

But mysteriously, the second appraiser is using properties miles away, selling six months ago, in completely different types of neighborhoods.  And even then, in those distant neighborhoods, they are only pulling the lowest sales and ignoring higher, more recent sales.  And the second appraiser just ignores all non-distressed sales.

Its almost as if… well, its as if HUD/FHA has specifically told the second appraiser that they better come in 10% below the first appraisal.  Like… EXACTLY 10% below the first appraisal.

So how does a market recover if a willing seller and willing buyer reach an arms-length  sales price, supported by an appraisal based on recent comps, but that deal mysteriously gets shit-canned by a secret requirement that forces the second appraiser to be overly-conservative?  That forces the second appraiser not to show the fair market value, but instead “explain the increase in property value”.

And how is it that this second appraisal requirement DOES NOT apply to bank-owned properties?  That’s right.  It doesn’t matter what the bank’s acquisition price was… there is no second appraisal requirement.  Because your Bailout money needs to be recovered before the real estate market is allowed to recover on its own.

What that means is that bank owned REO properties are setting the prices.  And flippers have to price their properties BELOW the REO price to get a successful FHA loan.  Or they have to wait 90 days.

So a flipper has a few crappy choices:

  • Wait 91 days to flip a house;
  • Take less than 20% for rehab costs and profit
  • Don’t accept FHA contracts

House Price teeter totterWe’ve decided not to accept FHA contracts for now.  They are just too much of a pain in the ass.  It means we won’t have as much competition for our homes (since the vast majority of borrowers are going FHA), and that probably means a haircut on our prices.  Which means we are helping to keep the real estate recovery at bay.

But at least we know that on the front end of the contract, instead of only discovering we are getting screwed when an appraiser decides it is better to have the pipeline of work from FHA than to uphold the standards and ethics of the industry.

 

 

–David

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Friday Foreclosure Roundup 4/20/12

Quote

1. The Great American Foreclosure Song,

a summary of the housing crisis a smart music video:


————————-

2. From  Calculated Risk Blog

Some Thoughts on Housing and Foreclosures:

According to LPS, there are currently about 2 million properties in the foreclosure process and another 1.7 million loans 90+ delinquent. However many of these loans are in judicial states, and even with the mortgage settlement, it will take some time to work through the courts. So it is hard to imagine a huge wave of foreclosures, if anything it will be more like a sustained high tide in certain judicial foreclosure areas.”

Calculated Risk goes on to talk about lenders giving incentives for short sales, new GSE short sale procedures, the HARP refi program, and REO-to-Rental pilot programs all combining to reduce the number of foreclosures going to the sale.

———————

3. From ZeroHedge,

Tyler Durden posts “No Housing Recovery Until 2020 in 5 Simple Charts“:

“Every day (for the past 3 years) we hear countless fairy tales why housing has bottomed and will improve any minute now. Just consider the latest kneeslapper from that endlessly amusing Larry Yun of the NAR, uttered just today: “pent-up  demand could burst forth from the improving economy.” Uh, right. Here’s the truth – it won’t and here is why, in 5 charts from Bank of America, so simple even an economist will get it…”

Summary:

  • Epic supply backlog
  • More opting to live with parents
  • More forced to rent
  • Home prices continue to slide
  • Hope returns… in 2020

 ——————–

4. From HuffPo

 Mortgage Foreclosure Scams See Huge Spike:

“The number of reported mortgage foreclosure scams has shot up 60 percent so far in 2012, … About 50 percent of the scams involve attorneys or others claiming to offer “specialized services.” The surge in schemes comes in the wake of recently launched federal programs that scammers have been able to exploit. “Regretfully, every new government initiative spawns a slew of foreclosure avoidance scams, often from the same cast of characters doing business under various names to avoid easy detection and identification,” Colleen Hernandez said in a release that accompanied the findings.”

Summary:

Watch out for scammers:

  • claiming to be government officials
  • prying for personal data
  • charging money to join a class action
  • charging for bogus loan audits

—————-

5. From The Big Picture

Spring brings signs of hope and renewal– except in the housing market.

Summary:

  • Shadow Inventory has a huge overhang
  • House affordability index is worthless
  • Prices have improved but are not rising
  • The psychology of renting
  • Asset prices after a bubble

 

 

 

 

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The 10 Commandments of Foreclosures (Part 3)

Today, we continue our series on the “10 Commandments of Foreclosure“.  (See Part One Here) (See Part Two Here). Not written in stone, but you ignore these rules at your peril:

  1. Know thy Process10 Commandments of Foreclosure
  2. Know thy Property
  3. Know thy Title
  4. Know thy Parties
  5. Know thy Occupant
  6. Know thy Judge
  7. Know thy Repairs
  8. Know thy Exit Strategy
  9. Know thy Buyer
  10. Know thy Closer

We covered #1-#3 in Part One.

#4-#6 was addressed In Part Two.

Part Three (this post), covers #7-#10 (Repairs, Exit Strategy, Buyer and Closing).

When we are done with this series, you should be fully prepared to bid at a foreclosure sale… or you should be too scared to bother.

PART THREE

#7- Know thy Repairs

Estimating repairs is the single most important profit factor… and helps determine your maximum acquisition price.

How to Estimate Repairs

 

First, be honest about the extent of repairs needed to flip or rent a home.  That is really the most critical step in your estimating process.

Honesty means you are looking at the repairs from your end user’s viewpoint.  You never want to leave something undone that turns a buyer off.  But on the other hand, you don’t want a bunch of upgrades that won’t increase the value to that buyer.  You can’t be an optimist, or your budget gets trashed when reality hits.  But a pessimist will never buy a house, because every deal looks bad.  You need honest, realistic, end-user based estimates.

Make sure the repairs or improvements you are looking at are justified by the property.  I love the patina of hand-scraped wood floors….  but I’d be insane to put them in a rental house.  At the same time, upgrading laminate counter-tops to granite might be just the ticket to sell a high-end house.  Again, the key is to focus on the expectations of your end-user.  NOT what you would want if you lived there (CLASSIC rookie mistake)– but rather what your buyer or tenant wants to see.

Add for Contingencies

 

What are contingencies?  The unexpected things.  The hot water heater that doesn’t heat.  The pool pump that craps out the day of closing.  The mold the last owner painted over.    The amateur wiring up in the attic.  The surprise things that pop up, despite your best efforts to put together a realistic budget.

The other contingency to budget for is the basic tendency of contractors to over-promise.  It always seems to cost more and take longer than they originally thought.  Especially when they realize you are new to the game.   But even with the most honest contractor, every job is going to contain a few hidden surprises.

When we estimate repairs, we automatically tack on an extra 10% for contingencies on new construction (less than 10 years old) and about 25% for older homes.  This covers most of the surprises that were lurking beneath the surface, provided we did a good job of being honest about what repairs went into our initial budget.

Contractors vs DIY

 

Until you have been doing this a while, you will pay at least 25% more for contractors and laborers than someone who does this full time…. AND it will take twice as long.  When we call our AC guy, we are asking him to put in three new units this week.  Our electrical contractor is going to one of our job sites every week.  So whose call is the electrician returning first? A first time customer asking about a price quote… or the guy who is making his boat payment?  The best price is always going to the loyal, proven repeat customer.

Contractors are expensive.  So lots of investors are tempted to do it themselves.  But doing it yourself can be even more expensive that hiring a pro.  Sure, there are some things where a little sweat equity might pay off… painting or putting out mulch. And for your first few houses, doing all the work can be a source of pride and accomplishment. But even if you are experienced AND competent, is it really the best use of your time?  Or would you be more productive hiring someone else to paint so you can concentrate your time and energy on finding the next house you want to buy?  If you enjoy doing rehabs, then by all means, knock yourself out.  But time is money too.

Also consider the impact of permits, insurance, compliance with code… all things your pro will take care of for you.  And consider the liability… the waiting lawsuit… if something isn’t done right.

Repairs determine acquisition price

 

When I am bidding on a foreclosure house, I pretty much know exactly how much the house is going to sell for once it is fixed up… and so do all the other experienced investors (we are all likely within 3% of each other).

And of course I know my minimum required return to be involved in a deal.

So that leaves just one variable: repairs.

If I plan on rehabbing and flipping a house, I’m going to base my maximum foreclosure sale bid price on what I think I can sell the house for once I’ve fixed it, less any expenses I plan on incurring, less my required profit.  Easy math.

So if we are bidding against each other and we have the same notion of value and repairs,  and we both plan on rehabbing and flipping, we are really just bidding to see who is willing to take less profit on the deal.

That repair number is really the most important factor in the equation, and even experienced investors will have wildly different estimates on repair bills.  I’m not often wrong on the value of the home, but my repair number is often way off base.  Sometimes too high… sometimes too low.  And errors either way cause problems.  If I overestimate the repair costs, then another investor is buying that house at the sale.  If I underestimate repairs, I make less than I needed.

Extras

 

Years ago, I read an article by lawyer/investor William Bronchick that he now calls “10 Easy Ways to Spruce Up your Rental or Rehab“.  Great read.  We swear by this list…. we always look at each of these as possible extras when doing a rehab.  These are things that rarely NEED to be done, so they are easy to overlook when estimating repairs.  But the money spent on these extras always pays dividends when your first buyer or tenant walks into the house.

  1. Replace electrical plates
  2. New six-panel interior doors
  3. New door handles
  4. Paint trim
  5. New front door
  6. Tile Foyer Entry
  7. New Shower Curtains
  8. Paint kitchen cabinets/New faucet
  9. Add shutters
  10. New mailbox

#8- Know thy Exit Strategy

Begin with the end in mind.  Always good advice.  So what are you looking to do with this house you are buying at the foreclosure sale?

Once you buy the foreclosure for cash, what is your exit strategy… your end use?  Different investors might specialize, or you may be open to multiple end uses, such as:

  • Flipping Wholesale
  • Flipping Retail
  • Renting
  • Lease Option
  • Contract for Deed
  • Owner Finance

It’s a good idea to know what other investors are primarily interested in doing with the homes they buy.  You may find a bargain outside the sale that is perfect for the foreclosure investor who likes rentals.  More importantly, it helps explain why someone bidding against you thought the property was worth a lot more than you did… they may have a different end use.

I have four different exit strategies when buying foreclosures, which give us a fair amount of flexibility (especially when bidding against other investors interested only in a quick flip):

  • flipping to other investors who want to do the rehab (wholesaling),
  • rehabbing and flipping to an end user
  • rehabbing and renting
  • rehabbing and selling to a buyer who needs owner financing.

Obviously, the exit strategy for a specific property depends on the age, condition, neighborhood, needed repairs, etc.  But we always know our exit strategy BEFORE we bid on the house.

 —

#9- Know thy Buyer

Who is going to buy or rent your house?  What are they looking for?

Take the time to picture your typical buyer or tenant for a particular house, preferably before you buy it, but at the very least, before you start working on it.

  • What repairs, improvements, upgrades or extras will they expect?
  • Do they care about local schools, nearby shopping, public transportation?
  • Will your buyer shop on their own or through a realtor?
  • How does your buyer make the decision to buy?
  • How are they financing (Conventional, USDA, FHA, owner financing)?
  • What concessions or costs will they need?

Obviously, you are not going to discriminate against someone other than your typical buyer.  You aren’t going to exclude anyone.  But by targeting your rehab and marketing to your intended audience, you stand a much better chance of making them happy.

#10- Know thy Closer

Most people refer to the person at a title company or law firm who handles the contract closing paperwork as the “Closer” or “Closing Agent.”

But my definition of a “Closer” is anyone who can make or break a deal.  Here are a few of the people involved in the sale or leasing of your rehabbed property:

  • Listing Agent
  • Selling Agent
  • Home Inspector
  • Appraiser
  • Mortgage Broker
  • Mortgage Lender
  • Mortgage Underwriter/Guarantor
  • Title Underwriter
  • Title Agent or Lawyer

Any one of these people can scuttle your deal… or help make it go through.  As an investor, you need to know what each of these people are looking for in the process.

A closing has many working parts, and getting everyone involved to work together ultimately falls on the shoulders of the person selling the home.  After all… you don’t get paid if just one thing goes wrong.

So get to know ALL the closers, anticipate what they need, and make sure they have what they need to move your deal on to the next step.

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