Plays 2 Run- Politics and Foreclosure Tactics

I love political commentary. Especially from those who identify and label bullshit.

One of my favorite guys to listen to is Alan Kelly (@playmakeralan), the CEO of Playmaker Systems and author of The Elements of Influence.  He does a great job of weekly breaking down political bullshit on The Morning Briefing- POTUS.

Alan frames his discussion in terms of “running plays”.  The plays he discusses are not limited to politics– they work in business as well.  They are the methods of advancing ideas, controlling markets, positioning products, and beating the competition.

In his system, Alan identifies 28 “Plays” (a stratagem, one of a finite set of discrete strategic maneuvers).  They are each labeled, defined and thoroughly discussed.   If you love strategy, game theory, and competition, get the book and visit the site.

Here are 9 of Alan’s Plays and how we regularly see them run at a foreclosure auction.


PASS-Exit the Marketplace.  The strategic withdrawal from the marketplace. From time to time, an investor’s war chest gets empty… or close enough.  Rather than show up at the sale and risk making a wrong move, the investor can take a vacation, focus on other investment strategies, or just go to the sale and hang back.  This strategic retreat allows the investor to live to fight another day.  Retreat… regroup… redeploy.

PING-Hint and Hide. The oblique reference or suggestion, enabled either by a player’s mere presence or its implied interests in topics, events and developments. The investor who wants to control a segment of the auction may strategically bid on properties that don’t fit his investment profile… just to throw others off.  Showing interest in everything can mask the investor’s true intention.  Bidding on farm properties when you are a single family home investor.  Buying the raw land out from under the developer.  These are not direct attacks, but simple hints that a competitor needs to look out for you.

RED HERRINGSend Off Course. Action drawing a competitor away from its preferred position or intended course of action. How many times have you heard investors at an auction asking each other about a sinkhole, or whether the property was occupied, or whether the roof was shot.  This might be genuine curiosity… or it could be a Red Herring.  The beauty of this Play is that you never know…

JAM-Gum Up the Works. Disable or disorganize another player’s activities or communications.  Investors love to distract their competition during the sale.  Asking them questions, calling their phone, or otherwise running a pick play to prevent them from bidding on the property up for grabs.

CHALLENGE- Exhort Others to Action. The public appeal, suggestion or demand by a player.  Investors love to push their competition off a property.  Sometimes directly, sometimes indirectly.  The open challenge “Come on, you know you want this one” can get in another bidder’s head just long enough that they don’t bid on time…. or even better yet… push them into buying a mistake.

BAIT-Taunt, Provoke a Reaction. The overt provocation of another player through action or information. People who are taunted get angry.  Angry bidders make mistakes.  Provoking the competition usually results in them making a poor choice.  The Information Bait is a little more subtle, but just as effective.

DRAFT- Follow, Feed-Off, Then Try to PassThe attempt to feed off another’s energy, innovation or best practice with the intent of overtaking.  At foreclosure auctions, we call this Piggybacking… the investor who doesn’t do their homework, but simply outbids someone who knows what they are doing.  It takes less energy to draft… but its also easier for the lead car to put you in the wall when you try to pass to the outside.

PLANT- A Secret Ally. A trusted and confidential ally- usually disguised or undisclosed to the opponent, who is placed to seed information.  This doesn’t work well at small auctions, and a plant can only be used once per player.  But we often see new plants at our sale conducting whisper campaigns.  Especially when new bidders with lots of cash show up.  Be cautious of the friendly person chatting you up at the sale…

CRAZY IVAN-Turn and Attack Unexpectedly. The deliberate invitation or initiation of an attack.  Crazy Ivan is one of my specialties… the suicide maneuver for tactical advantage.  Remember Hunt for Red October, where they spin the sub? I love leaving everybody in the room wondering what the hell I am thinking. We buy so many houses that it starts to get predictable, which invites Drafting.  Crazy Ivan just keeps it real…



 So what other games and plays do you see at foreclosure auctions?  What works… what doesn’t?

Please respond in the Comments Below!


LinkedInPinterestRedditStumbleUponEmailShare

How to Make Hard Money Financing Work- for Landlords

I love buying foreclosures with cash. Nothing beats the flexibility and certainty.  But financing can also be an incredible leverage tool.

With flipping, borrowing usually works well.  Buy, fix and flip quickly, and you earn easy profits, even with the high costs of a hard money loan.

But what about the buy-and-hold investor?  The landlord looking for steady income?  Should leverage ever be a part of the equation?

I used to think that it was a really bad idea to borrow for buy-and-hold.  But I’ve changed my mind.

When you run the numbers…actually do the math… financing makes a lot of sense for income producing property.  The leverage REALLY helps the returns.

Now… where do you get a loan?  Credit today is tighter than hipster jeans.  And even if you qualify for investor financing, Fannie Mae caps the number of properties you can finance as an investor.

So, for most investors, the only real financing option is hard money or private financing.

That’s usually 12% money (or higher).  So how can you possibly make money on a rental if you are paying loan-shark rates?

Well… the math is actually pretty simple. Hard money works.

It turns out you can STILL make money on your buy-and-hold properties, even if you are borrowing 12% money…actually, you make MORE money than if you paid all cash.

SIDE NOTE: This is GREAT for people with Self Directed IRAs.  You can buy rental properties with leverage.  While banks won’t give you the “non-recourse” loan the IRS requires, a hard money lender is usually happy to lend based on the value of the property– with a large down payment.  And again, the math gives you a much better return on investment.

Now, first you have to accept the difference between Return on Investment (ROI) and Cash Flow.

Because with hard money, you are really going to dent your monthly Cash Flow… but you are going to increase your overall ROI.   This just means you have to look at the long term, not the short term.  Of course, since most buy-and-hold strategies are designed to look at the long term anyway….

In Florida, I can readily find hard money at 12% interest.  Usually, that’s a 50% LTV Hard Money(Loan to Value)… I have to make a 50% down payment, and can borrow the other half.  The hard money lender wants a short amortization schedule… full repayment of all principal and interest in 100 months.  (Or they want a short term balloon, which requires a refinance in a couple years… not a great long term plan.)

Again, 12% sounds like an exorbitant rate and results in a really high monthly payment, right?

So… how can the hard money loan POSSIBLY be better than all cash?

Here’s the simple math:


EXAMPLE:
$100,000 Property
$1,200 Monthly Rent

  • Assume 4-months of rent to pay property manager, taxes, insurance, vacancy and other expenses. (Conservative, but simple). 
  • Ignore depreciation, cost allocation, and other tools that actually make financing even more attractive.
  • Ignore the possibility that rent and property values should go up over time- that’s common to both calculations.

Cash Return on $100k property rented at $1,200/month:
$1,200/month x 8-months = $9,600 / $100,000 invested = 9.6%

Cash Return using 100 month / 12% interest / 50% down payment:
$50,000 Loan: 100-month amortization=$793.29 per month ($9,520 per year)
$1,200/month x 8-mos. = $9,600 – $9,520 loan = $80.00 / $50,000.00 = .0016% 


Ugh… which would you prefer?  A 9.6% return… or a tenth of a percent?

Hold on a minute. 

So far, we just calculated your cash flow as a percentage of the amount invested.  It’s not an accurate picture of your overall ROI.

Because every month, your tenant is helping you pay off the hard money lender. 

On a 100 month amortization, a huge chunk of the monthly payment is reducing the loan principal.  And that reduction is adding to your equity value (independent of any appreciation in rents or the property value).  Here’s what your $50k loan looks like over time:



For the mathematically challenged, this looks like a bunch of gobbledygook.

What it shows is the investor who borrowed hard money (even at an outrageous 12%) makes a little less ROI in the first three years than his “all cash” counterpart.

But then in the 4th year, the return for the leveraged investor passes the All Cash investor… and it steadily gets better.

Over the course of 8 years, all other factors being equal, the Investor with a hard money loan made an average of 11.72%, while the cash investor made a steady 9.6% return.

That means the leveraged investor had a 22% better ROI than his all cash counterpart.

BUT…

The REAL difference is what happens at the end of the loan.

Because the leveraged investor could afford TWO houses with his 100k (two $50k loans with $50 down payments).

So after 8 years, the leveraged investor has two houses, both paying rent, both with fully paid off loans.

And the ROI for the leveraged investor is thereafter DOUBLE that of the cash investor.

Let’s Summarize your choices:

1.  An all cash purchase of a rental home.  Pay $100k, rent it for $1,200 a month, and make a steady 9.6% return on investment after paying all property management, taxes, insurance and maintenance bills.  (Plus the rents and property value hopefully go up over time)

OR

2. Borrow 50% hard money at 12%.  Buy two houses.  Enjoy an average of 22% higher ROI over the first 8 years…. then 100% higher ROI than under the cash option (and still enjoy appreciating rents or property values)

The Moral of the Story?

Even leverage at loan-shark rates can compound the returns for long term, buy-and-hold foreclosure investors!!

LinkedInPinterestRedditStumbleUponEmailShare

Foreclosure Hazard Stories… #46 and #47

It doesn’t seem to matter how long you do something… there is always something new to learn.

In the past week we’ve had two “learning experiences” I’d prefer to have skipped.

1. You Need Accurate Info at the Foreclosure Auction

Accurate information is a must.  Everybody knows that.  But we learned today  information can be “accurate” and “misleading” at the same time.

We have a spreadsheet listing every property for each day’s foreclosure auction.  Our list has all the information we think we need to make intelligent decisions… case number, names, address, size, year, type of construction, etc.  This way if the bank offers a deep discount on something we didn’t see, at least we have a fighting chance of deciding whether to bid.

Well, there wasn’t much of interest at this particular sale.  But there was one property where the bank’s maximum bid seemed really cheap.  We were generally familiar with the area, even though we had not seen the particular house.  It was a new house, on a little bit of land, in an area of farms. And it sounded like a great deal.

So we bid on it, won and paid the deposit.  $3k in cash.

Then we drove out to see our new house.  And then we realized our mistake.

Well… the mistake of the person who prepared our spreadsheet.

See, our list said this was a “2034SF/08” house.  That means it is just over two-thousand square feet of living space, built in 2008.  Or, at least, that’s what it is SUPPOSED to mean.

Turns out… this is a 1908 house.  Not a 2008 house.  Hundred years off.  Our spreadsheet was accurate… it was in fact an “08” house… just not “2008”.  That’s extremely accurate and incredibly misleading at the same time.

A 2008 house would have been a no-brainer… easy rehab and flip for top dollar. 

A 1908 was also a no-brainer…. forfeit the deposit.

Any way… lesson learned, right?


2. You Just Can’t Avoid Crazy People.

We bought a great house about a month ago.  The owners had done everything they could to keep the house… filing answers, counterclaims, motions and appeals.  They had even filed a separate federal lawsuit, alleging the foreclosing bank committed fraud.  ALL of this crap had been summarily dismissed.

We had to evict the owners, who still thought the federal lawsuit protected them (even though it was dismissed months earlier).  They were a little nasty about it… telling our agent that he needed to find a better job, wasn’t getting paid enough, and didn’t know what he was talking about.  However, once the Sheriff posted the writ, they moved all their things.  Surprisingly, they even left the house relatively clean.

So we rehabbed (tile, carpet, counters, paint, pool screen, etc) and put the house on the market.  Got a contract right away at our asking price.

Great.  Just the way it is supposed to work.  Everything is perfect.

Then right before closing, the old owners filed a “lis pendens” in the public records.

WTF?

Now, all a lis pendens does is warn people a property is involved in litigation.  This particular lis pendens is complete bullshit… it references the state foreclosure case and the federal case they filed… both of which have been dismissed and appeal times have run.  So the “pending” action it supposedly warns of is non-existent.  And it doesn’t even give the property address, so it doesn’t meet the definition of a lis pendens either.

There is absolutely no merit to their claim, and we will have it resolved within a week.  Luckily, we know exactly what to do, and can handle this inexpensively and quickly, since we don’t have to hire outside legal counsel.  More importantly, these owners filed their bullshit paperwork with enough lead time that it won’t screw up our closing.

But you can’t predict Crazy. 

And if this had happened to another investor… or happened a little closer to the closing… it could cost a LOT of money.  And it could cost the deal.  Obviously Crazy Owner has no money… so even if the court sanctions them for wasting everybody’s time, good luck collecting.

Just another risk of buying foreclosures at the auction.  Luckily this one wasn’t our fault and could never have been predicted….


What other risks have you seen at foreclosure sales?  What have Crazy People done to mess up your investments?

Please COMMENT below– Thanks!


LinkedInPinterestRedditStumbleUponEmailShare