Friday 4closure Round Up 5.4.12

–From Trulia:

Strong Housing Demand and Tightening Inventories Spark Nearly 2 Percent Rise in Asking Prices over Previous Quarter

Asking prices on for-sale homes–which lead sales prices by approximately two or more months–were 0.5 percent higher in April than in March, seasonally adjusted. Together with increases in March and February, asking prices in April rose nationally 1.9 percent quarter over quarter (Q-o-Q), seasonally adjusted. The price increase unadjusted for seasonality was even higher: 4.8 percent Q-o-Q, since prices typically jump in springtime. Year over year (Y-o-Y), asking prices rose 0.2 percent nationally.

“Housing prices have already bottomed with asking prices on the rise for three straight months. Aside from a stumble in December, asking prices have been stable or rising for the last eight months,” said Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist. “Prices have joined the recovery, alongside sales and construction. But foreclosures threaten prices, especially in judicial-foreclosure states like Florida, New Jersey, Illinois and New York, where many more distressed sales are still to come.”

 

–From Freddie Mac:

Fixed Mortgage Rates Average New All-Time Record Lows

Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates finding new all-time record lows … The 30-year fixed averaged 3.84 percent, down from its previous all-time record low of 3.87 percent last registered on February 9, 2012…… Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.71 percent.

 

 –From RealtyTrac:

REO Properties Devoured by Investors

  • Investment homes sales soared a whopping 66 percent in 2011, with investors purchasing 1.23 million properties compared to 749,000 in 2010
  • Sales of investment properties jumped to 27 percent of the market in 2011, compared with 17 percent of the market in 2010.
  • 41 percent of investment buyers purchased more than one property in 2011.

REO Properties
All told, the REO inventory was a staggering 634,000 properties as of the end of March 2012, according to RealtyTrac. Uncle Sam is the largest holder of REO property. The government sponsored enterprises — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — together own some 180,000 REO listings.

Nationwide, investors are buying  REO real estate, rehabbing them and either renting them out for cash flow or putting them back into the market for re-sale. In a letter to federal agencies and regulators, the NAR urged policymakers and lenders to expand the  availability of financing for qualified buyers and investors to reduce the number of REO properties on the market.

 

–From Nick Timiraos at the WSJ:

Housing Ends Slide but Faces a Long Bottom

Nearly six years after home prices started falling, more U.S. housing markets appear to be nearing a new phase: a prolonged bottom.

Housing economists are debating whether that shadow inventory will spoil any housing recovery. “That’ll be like a ball and chain,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist at CoreLogic. “It won’t prevent a recovery, but it could drag it out over several years.”

Ms. Zelman … said the shadow inventory is “not going to result in the double dip that people always talk about.” She points to a burgeoning appetite for housing from investors, who are scooping up homes that can be converted to rentals, and six years of pent-up demand from traditional buyers who feel better about their financial prospects. “The fear is gone,” she said.

While the foreclosure overhang is serious, some economists say there is a less-noticed tailwind that could balance things out: the sharp decline in new construction over the past four years. “A lot of the people who talk about ‘shadow inventory’ don’t talk about how slow the overall housing stock has been growing,” said Thomas Lawler, an independent housing economist

 

–From Realty Check by Diana Olick

Flood of Foreclosures Still Fails to Materialize

The number of homes entering the foreclosure process rose in March, up 8.1 percent, according to a new report from Lender Processing Services, but the volume is down more than 30 percent from a year ago.

Analysts had expected this number to skyrocket immediately following the $25 billion settlement between banks and state governments over fraudulent mortgage servicing.

Foreclosures sales, which are the final stage of the foreclosure process, not sales of bank-owned homes, dropped precipitously in March to their lowest point in over two years…..The foreclosure sales decline also appears to be exclusively in private and portfolio loans, which again points to the settlement.

That low pace of foreclosure sales is keeping foreclosure inventory, or loans in the foreclosure process, at near historic highs, according to LPS. That number may be heading lower, however, as banks ramp up the short sale process. Short sales, when the bank allows the home to be sold for less than the value of the mortgage, are in fact now outpacing sales of bank-owned homes in many markets, according to a new report from RealtyTrac.

–From CoreLogic:

CoreLogic® Reports 69,000 Completed Foreclosures Nationally in March

CoreLogic … today released its National Foreclosure Report for March, which provides monthly data on completed foreclosures, foreclosure inventory and 90+ day delinquency rates. There were 69,000 completed foreclosures in March 2012 compared to 85,000 in March 2011 and 66,000 in February 2012. Through the first quarter of 2012, there were 198,000 completed foreclosures compared to 232,000 through the first quarter of 2011. Since the start of the financial crisis in September 2008, there have been approximately 3.5 million completed foreclosures.

Approximately 1.4 million homes, or 3.4 percent of all homes with a mortgage, were in the national foreclosure inventory as of March 2012 compared to 1.5 million, or 3.5 percent, in March 2011 and 1.4 million, or 3.4 percent, in February 2012. The number of loans in the foreclosure inventory decreased by nearly 100,000, or 6.0 percent, in March 2012 compared to March 2011.

“The overall delinquency level was unchanged in March, remaining at its lowest point since July 2009,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Non-judicial foreclosure markets like Nevada, Arizona, and California are experiencing significant improvements in their shares of delinquent borrowers. Some judicial foreclosure states are also improving, like Florida, but not to the extent of non-judicial markets.”

Compared to a year ago, the number of completed foreclosures has slowed,” said Anand Nallathambi, chief executive officer of CoreLogic. “Since the foreclosure inventory is also coming down, this suggests that loan modifications, short sales, deeds-in-lieu are increasingly being used as an alternative to foreclosures to clear distressed assets in our communities.”

 

 

 

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Exiting Gracefully-all about Exit Strategies

What is an Exit Strategy?  It is simply your plan for getting rid of what you just bought at the foreclosure auction.Exit MazeSmart investors have as many exit strategies as possible.  Each property that comes up for sale at an auction is going to be different– different age, size, neighborhood, etc.  And each property therefore has a different ideal exit strategy.

The more strategies you have at your disposal, the more versatile you are in bidding.  If you get locked into one way of moving a property, you will miss lots of opportunities.  You will pass on houses that could make money, just because they don’t fit your method of unloading the house.

While there are plenty of variations, the basic foreclosure exit strategies are:

  1. Wholesale Flipping
  2. Retail Flipping
  3. Owner Finance
  4. Hold and Rent

Exit SignWholesale Flipping

Wholesale flipping just means you buy the foreclosure property and flip it to another investor.  Wholesaling is generally a fast and painless way to make quick cash, and is a great way for a beginning investor to feel out the market.

However, wholesale flipping with foreclosures is considerably riskier than wholesale flipping in other areas of the distressed real estate market.  Unlike wholesaling an REO or short sale, the investor who flips a foreclosure is undertaking all the risks of the foreclosure sale process– title issues, objections, delays, etc.  The foreclosure wholesaler also needs to have a considerable amount of capital, because you must pay cash at the foreclosure sale, and then make your money back when you flip to the investor.

But once you learn the ropes, foreclosure wholesaling can be a great tool– even for the experienced investor.  The paycheck is a lot less– usually just a few thousand dollars.  But you make a quick profit and get your money back in the game.  Would you rather make $5k on a wholesale deal in 5 days or make $30k on retail flip in 60 days?  By wholesaling, your capital is again available to buy the next deal and you get paid quickly.

So how do you find investors to flip your wholesale deals?  Network.  Talk to people at your local investors association, your competition at the auction, real estate agents, etc.  Ask at your title company.  Call the “I buy houses” bandit signs.  Place an ad on Craigslist.  Talk to as many people looking to rehab and flip as you can.  As a wholesaler, these are your retail buyers.

Retail Flipping

Retail Flipping with foreclosures is what most people do.  Buy the house… fix the house… sell the house.  You sell to the end user… the retail buyer.

You have to make all the decisions about the rehab.  You have to market and sell the house.  But retail flipping is going to make you the most amount of cash (although it is not the quickest cash, nor is it going to build wealth).

In today’s market, a fair number of home buyers at the retail level are going to be cash buyers.  But the majority are going to finance their purchase.  FHA and USDA loans are the most popular right now.  So you MUST know the FHA and USDA loan requirements if you are flipping to someone who is going to borrow money.  You need to know what you can contribute at closing, what type of inspections will be done, and how to market to these buyers.

Rehabbing the retail flip is the way you add value.  But how much value should you add?  Almost all foreclosures need new paint and carpet.  But what do you do after that?  A green lawn and fresh flowers always make a great impression.  A new front door or shutters can add a lot of curb appeal inexpensively.

New cabinets?  New roof?  Maybe.  But it is easy to quickly spend too much on a rehab, and you need to watch your expenses carefully.  You only want to spend money on repairs or improvements that are going to return your expense plus make you profit.  The house has to be to code, must pass its inspections, and should be at least as good as the comparable homes in the neighborhood.  But be careful to not overdo the rehab on a retail flip.

Owner Finance Flipping

Selling to a retail buyer who cannot line up financing?  Want to sell a crappy house for top dollar? Owner financing is the way to go.

Owner financing is just being the bank for your buyer.  You sell the home and finance the purchase.  The buyer walks away from closing with a deed, and you end up with a promissory note and mortgage.  The note is the buyer’s promise to pay, and the mortgage is the lien on the property if they stop paying.

Owner financing allows you to sell houses that would be difficult to move as flips– usually the lower end, older houses.  But it uses up more cash.  Unlike the flip, when you sell with owner financing, you don’t get your money back quickly.  But sometimes that’s a good thing.  Flipping can give you a great income.  But it’s a job.  Stop showing up for work, and you stop making money.  The next paycheck comes from the next deal.

Owner financing helps build passive income and long term wealth.  Once you’ve made the sale, you sit back and collect monthly mortgage payments.  Sure, you have to check to make sure they paid the taxes and insurance, but generally collecting payments is pretty simple.

If you need to turn that note into cash later on, you can liquidate the note by finding a note buyer.  Note buyers want to see a solid, seasoned note.  That means you need to screen your buyers the same way a note buyer will, checking credit, getting a good down payment, and only selling to someone who can afford the payment.  Then you need to keep good records, tracking the date and amount of every payment.  A note buyer is often going to want a discount from the face amount, and the better the payment history and your record keeping, the lower the discount…. the more you make.

Hold and Rent

Rentals are the true road to wealth.  Lots of hassles… but lots of rewards.

When you wholesale, flip or owner finance, you’ve locked in your profit.  You’ve determined the maximum amount you will ever make on that particular property.

Rentals let you take advantage of long term appreciation.  Which, even though its been REALLY hard to come by the last five years, will eventually return to most markets.

The classic example of “nothing down wealth building” through rentals is to buy 10 homes, all with bank loans.  Rent all 10 out, making sure the rent covers your mortgage, taxes, insurance and other expenses.  You aim for a small monthly profit, but the important thing is just to avoid negative cash flow.  Then 10-15 years later, after all the homes have significantly appreciated, you sell half of them and use those proceeds to pay off the mortgages on the remaining homes.  Now you have 5 paid-for houses, each generating a nice monthly income.  That’s enough to make a decent retirement income for most people!

For rentals, I focus on nice, older homes in good solid neighborhoods.  These are the homes that are going to maintain and build value in the long run.

I always consider the rental potential of a house if I think we might have trouble flipping the house for top dollar. It’s a great exit strategy to have when a flip doesn’t work out.  It lets you buy marginally profitable houses at the foreclosure sale, knowing you can always rent the property instead.

I also consider keeping tenants in place whenever we buy an occupied foreclosure home… which happens more and more as banks realize they don’t want the hassle of dealing with tenants.  The Protecting Tenants at Foreclosure Act requires us to honor the term of written leases or give 90 days notice to tenants without a lease.  As long as the person is a bona-fide tenant and can pay fair market rent, I will always consider renting our foreclosure purchase to the in-place tenant.

As with owner financing, rentals tie up your cash.  The numbers usually only make sense for someone investing their own money, or cheap bank financing.  Hard money and private money is just too expensive to avoid a negative cash flow with most rentals.

BUT.  Being a landlord isn’t for everybody.  I have a staff to deal with tenant complaints, repairs, evictions and all the other hassles, so I tend to forget what a pain in the ass it can be.  When you are handling those problems on your own, you need to be educated and experienced.  Don’t become a landlord by accident.

Conclusion

The well armed foreclosure investor will have as many exit strategies as possible.  The more versatile you are, the more homes you can buy, and the more money you can make.  Determining when to wholesale or flip, when to owner finance or rent… those are important decisions that can be the difference between making money and losing it.

Exit Center

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Seven steps to pricing your foreclosure flip

From the Noobie mailbag:

“How do I determine the sales price of my foreclosure flip”?

Obviously, pricing a property right is the most important element of a successful flip.  Price it too high and nobody notices.  Too low and you left cash on the table.  So how do you price your flip?

House Price teeter totter

1.  Estimate price BEFORE you buy

Your max foreclosure bid should be the price you can sell the home for after it is fixed up, less the cost of repairs and closing, less the profit you hope to make.

So you should never buy a rehab property without having a very good idea about your after-repaired sales price. Price BEFORE you buy, not after.

2.  Start with comparable recent sales

Appraisers use comparable sales of similar properties to determine fair market value.  In a perfect world, the appraiser uses close-by comps the same size, age and style, that sold in the past three months.  Good luck with that.

So how do you find comps?  If you have access to a local Realtor board’s MLS, that is obviously your best source of info.  If not, you will need a Realtor or appraiser to pull  comps for you, or find another source.  Even if you have MLS access, you  want a second source of info, because your MLS only covers Realtor-listed sales, and plenty of houses sell without a Realtor.

Other sources of information:

  • RealtyTrac
  • Redfin
  • Zillow
  • Trulia
  • Property Appraiser
  • Tax Collector
  • Official Transfer Records

3.  Then consider ACTIVE sales

Appraisers are going to look at comparable recent sales, so if you have a financed buyer, your house better appraise based on the comps.

But comps are not your competition.

You sell against the other houses on the ACTIVE market, not the closed market.  So before you price your home, you better know what other homes your potential buyer will be looking at along with your home.

4.  Learn neighborhood differences

We buy homes in several large developments with over a thousand homes each.  Within these developments, there are areas where identical homes have a price difference of about 10%-15%… within two blocks of each other.

It’s a small enough difference that you would never see the trend until you are actively working that neighborhood.  But it is a difference you can’t afford to ignore.  And only experience is going to teach you to recognize the subtle differences.

5.  Cheaper, Better… or Both

Once you have a clear idea of past sales and active competing properties, it’s pretty simple to price your house competitively.

We usually try to price flips about 5% below similar active houses.  If everybody else is at $80k, we price at $76k.  That makes our property noticeably cheaper and grabs attention.  And no… we are not leaving money on the table.  The cheaper price results in multiple offers, and we end up with the maximum possible price.

The other way to go, is to make your house the nicest house on the block, with options the other houses don’t have.  An extra bedroom.  A pool.  Larger garage.  If the home has these extras, then we usually price 5% higher than the typical competitor.

But for a quick sale, nothing beats a house with extras AND a price 5% lower than the other available homes.

6.  DON’T price emotionally

Want to screw up royally?  Price your house based on:

  • “what I want to make”
  • “what I think it’s worth”
  • “what I have in it”

Irrelevant.

Yet I’ve seen investors make pricing decisions based on these irrelevant emotional factors too many times to count.  And a few months later, they are still sitting on a house that should have sold in a couple weeks.

If you overpaid for the house and ran over-budget on repairs… those are sunk costs.  Your buyer isn’t responsible for your screw up.  Sell the house, acknowledge the mistake, and try not to do it again.  But price your house to sell, not to recover from your mistake.

7.  Tweak the price as needed

If we’ve priced a house correctly, we have offers within a week.

If we don’t have at least one offer in seven days, we tweak the price.  We might only drop it by $100, but this keeps it on the MLS “Hot Sheet”… the list of recently added or changed listings.  So a new group of real estate agents add our house to their showing list for the next weekend.

The market will quickly tell you if you’ve priced correctly.  If we are not getting offers, we are priced too high.

The exception to this rule of thumb?  One-offs.  When you are flipping a large home, a farm, vacant land or a commercial property, you may just need to be patient.  The price may be perfect, but you need to wait for the right buyer to come along.

But with a typical single family home, price is what moves the house.  If the house isn’t moving, change the price.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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